Seasonal Patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends

• NCJ Number: 245959
• Author(s): Janet L. Lauritsen, Ph.D., Bureau of Justice Statistics; Nicole White, Ph.D., University of Missouri - St. Louis
• Date Published: June 2014
• Agencies: BJS
• Publication Type: Publication

Annotation

Uses data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to examine the seasonal patterns in violent and property crime victimization in the United States from 1993 to 2010.

Abstract

Uses data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to examine the seasonal patterns in violent and property crime victimization in the United States from 1993 to 2010. Seasonal patterns are periodic fluctuations in the victimization rates that tend to occur at the same time each year. The report describes seasonal patterns in property crime (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and other household theft) and violent victimization (rape and sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault). It also presents seasonal trends in other forms of violence, including intimate partner violence, victimizations involving a weapon, and violence resulting in injury.

Highlights

• Seasonal patterns existed in household larceny and burglary victimization rates. Rates of these household crimes tended to be higher in the summer than during other seasons of the year.
• When seasonal variations in household property victimization were found, the differences between the highest and lowest seasonal rates were less than 11%.
• Though rates of motor vehicle theft tended to be lower in the spring than in the summer, there were few regular differences between summer, fall, and winter rates.
• Aggravated assault rates were higher during the summer than during the winter, spring, and fall. In comparison, simple assault rates were higher during the fall than during other seasons of the year.
• When seasonal variations were found for violent victimization, the differences between the rates of the highest and lowest seasons were less than 12%.