FY 2017 Small Area Estimation Expansion

Though the NCVS was originally designed to provide national level estimates of criminal victimization, BJS has recognized an increasing need for victimization data at the state and local level. The three major reviews of the NCVS program (Penick and Owens, 1976; Biderman et al., 1986; Groves and Cork, 2008) all point to the demand local criminal justice administrators have for empirical information to shape policy. This project focuses on improving and expanding on work that has been conducted previously to develop model-based estimates of victimization, using small area estimation (SAE) techniques. The use of SAE makes it possible to produce victimization estimates in areas where it is not feasible to get direct estimates. The use of SAE for subnational estimates has the added benefit of not being subject to concerns about disclosing the identity of NCVS respondents.